tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post1748863800627275472..comments2016-11-08T14:16:25.637-05:00Comments on mpv's little blog: Optimizing a Batting Order With Brute Force Codempvhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17750804156650433044noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post-52215931136615955222015-02-23T19:43:44.058-05:002015-02-23T19:43:44.058-05:00I wrote a similar simulator without the slugging c...I wrote a similar simulator without the slugging component and had one interesting thing in common. the optimal lineup has the worst players not bat last. they bat in the 8/9 slot versus the 10/11 slot. Your simulation shows a similar thing. Interesting finding.David Speightshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15341366023260779703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post-58561419538428394352011-07-15T14:43:58.108-04:002011-07-15T14:43:58.108-04:00I should add, the standard deviation across my sim...I should add, the standard deviation across my simulations for a game scoring 15 runs is generally about 6 runs -- game-to-game variability is high.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post-67854006441615317472011-07-15T14:39:11.519-04:002011-07-15T14:39:11.519-04:00I wrote a very similar optimizer to the one descri...I wrote a very similar optimizer to the one described here. I've tracked stats (out/1b/2b/3b/4b, counting walks/sacs as 1b and fielder's choice as an out) for our players (who have a VERY high variance in skill) for a number of games, and have run hundreds of sims for each possible lineup (with thousands more on the top contenders). Given the following assumptions:<br /><br />1) All runners take identical #bases to the batter.<br />2) Past performance predicts future play no matter the situation.<br /><br />I find what is found by BLOOP -- per seven inning game, the difference bettween the best and worst lineups is about 1 run (out of about 15 per game). On the other hand, dropping the best player will cost 2 runs and dropping the worst will net 1.5.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post-78967334893825243422011-04-10T22:18:34.640-04:002011-04-10T22:18:34.640-04:00There's a whole chapter in Baseball Between th...There's a whole chapter in <i><a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=VsmnfVUKJskC&lpg=PA37&ots=t6ZJ3kyjY7&pg=PA35#v=onepage&q&f=false" rel="nofollow">Baseball Between the Numbers</a></i> about optimizing batting order. In it, the authors describe a simulator they wrote called BLOOP (Baseball Lineup Order Optimization Program). They found that, using an MLB roster, the difference between the most optimal and least optimal batting order was pretty minimal -- about 26 runs over the course of a season. That's the majors, though, where variance in batter skill is pretty small, relatively speaking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-893005668131085829.post-24225410098803215802011-04-10T21:42:24.838-04:002011-04-10T21:42:24.838-04:00Yes, but what was the variability in the score acr...Yes, but what was the variability in the score across multiple runs? Averages can often mean nothing.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14820480775030006896noreply@blogger.com